We Are Wrong About AI Coding.

The past couple of years have been pretty wild for developers. Ever since AI entered the picture, the speculation has been nonstop.

AI is taking over the entire industry. Developers are finished. The robots are coming.

-Every tech pundit, ever

Wild, right? Well, I'm still not convinced. Most of these claims are clearly exaggerated.

Let's start simple. AI writes code 10x faster than any developer. Or better still, faster delivery or 10 times more code output... of which I am not convinced.

I don't think it's that simple.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to play the devil's advocate here.

The CEO Thought Experiment

Take for instance, you're the CEO of a company. Your goal is to maximize profits... With the rise of AI, you can now crank out features, utilities and products like never before. All you gotta do is start using AI. Right?

So what do you do?

Please stick with me here. This is a thought experiment. I'm not saying this is what you should do. I'm just asking you to consider the options.

Well obviously the second option makes sense. But here's the thing... if you picked Option A while your competitors picked Option B, they'd bury you. More output, more features, faster delivery. Your company would fade out and die.

So Why Aren't We Seeing 10x Improvements Everywhere?

Between 2021 and 2023, tech companies massively overhired during a boom. When the economy contracted, they held onto that workforce for a while, then started cutting. The AI narrative became a convenient cover story. In reality, most of these companies were just losing profit.

Most companies firing developers will say it's to implement AI. But dig a little deeper and you'll find a bad market, shrinking margins, and cost-cutting decisions that had been coming regardless.

This Isn't the First Time

This isn't the first time a new tool has threatened to make developers obsolete either. Throughout the history of programming, new technologies have consistently made developers faster, better, more productive. And the industry grew every single time.

More capability meant more ideas, more products, more demand for developers who knew how to use the tools.

More resources doesn't mean less work. It means bigger ambitions.

-The pattern, every single time

Where Does AI Actually Stand?

AI is a stronger multiplier than anything that came before it. I'll give it that. But I don't think the outcome will be any different.

A competent developer using AI will outbuild and outship someone who isn't. That doesn't mean less work though. It means more features, bigger products, wilder ambitions.

That's my take anyway. See you in the next one.¹